House
All 435 districts.
Final forecast ·
House results
Winners recorded for seats on the ballot
11 outstanding of 435 races
House final forecast
Democrats control in 97,570 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Democrats control in 97,498 of 100,000 simulated elections.
mean 243.2 Dem-caucus seats Dashed line marks a majority.
mean 243.2 Dem-caucus seats Dashed line marks a majority.
Our error model leaves out one correlated term, so this figure is slightly firmer than it should be. Known limitations.
Forecast over time
Dem Rep 5th–95th percentile of seats Data correction
Darker is likelier. The palest shades are tossups: the leading side wins 65% of simulations or fewer.
Outstanding races · Show all races
11 of 11 districts
| District ▲ | Result | Final forecast | Final chance | Margin | 2024 baseline | Polls | Last poll | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-1 |
Uncalled
|
Favors RepFavors Rep | Final chanceR 100%R 100% | R+33.3 R+33.3 | |
R+2.4 House · same lines | 32 | Nov 1, 2026 |
| CA-4 |
Uncalled
|
Favors DemFavors Dem | Final chanceD 100%D 100% | D+24.7 D+24.7 | |
D+14.5 President · new lines | 0 | — |
| CA-23 |
Uncalled
|
Favors RepFavors Rep | Final chanceR 90%R 90% | R+9.2 R+9.2 | |
R+19.4 President · new lines | 0 | — |
| LA-5 |
Uncalled
|
Favors RepFavors Rep | Final chanceR 100%R 100% | R+23.9 R+23.9 | |
R+34.0 President · new lines | 0 | — |
| LA-6 |
Uncalled
|
Favors RepFavors Rep | Final chanceR 100%R 100% | R+19.9 R+19.9 | |
R+30.1 President · new lines | 0 | — |
| ME-2 |
Uncalled
|
Favors DemFavors Dem | Final chanceD 80%D 78% | D+6.2 D+5.6 | |
D+0.6 House · same lines | 19 | Oct 31, 2026 |
| MN-1 |
Uncalled
|
Favors RepFavors Rep | Final chanceR 75%R 74% | R+4.9 R+4.6 | |
R+17.0 House · same lines | 5 | Oct 14, 2026 |
| NC-5 |
Uncalled
|
Favors RepFavors Rep | Final chanceR 85%R 85% | R+7.6 R+7.7 | |
R+19.0 House · same lines | 0 | — |
| NC-7 |
Uncalled
|
Favors RepFavors Rep | Final chanceR 79%R 79% | R+5.9 R+5.9 | |
R+17.2 House · same lines | 2 | Aug 20, 2026 |
| NC-10 |
Uncalled
|
Favors RepFavors Rep | Final chanceR 86%R 86% | R+8.0 R+8.0 | |
R+19.3 House · same lines | 1 | Mar 12, 2026 |
| TN-4 |
Uncalled
|
Favors RepFavors Rep | Final chanceR 97%R 97% | R+13.7 R+13.8 | |
R+23.9 President · new lines | 0 | — |