NC-9

Richard Ojeda (Dem)
Richard Hudson (Rep · incumbent)

Favors Rep

Republicans82%

Republicans are favored, winning 81,812 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans82%

Republicans are favored, winning 81,551 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+7.7

5th–95th interval

R+21.7 to D+6.3

Estimated margin

R+7.6

5th–95th interval

R+21.6 to D+6.4

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+4.8

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Lake Research Partners dem sponsor	Aug 31–Sep 3, 2026	400 lv	Richard Hudson 46.0% Richard Ojeda 42.0%	R+4.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction NC-9 Sep 17, 2026

New NC-9 poll shows Hudson up 4, and our forecast does not move

A Lake Research Partners survey of 400 likely voters puts Richard Hudson at 46% and Richard Ojeda at 42%; our model still gives Ojeda an 18 in 100 chance.

One new poll of North Carolina's 9th District has Republican incumbent Richard Hudson at 46% and Democrat Richard Ojeda at 42%. The survey, from Lake Research Partners, was fielded August 31 to September 3 among 400 likely voters. With a sample that size, a four-point gap is close to the noise;...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5