PA-1

This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 64 in 100 simulations.

Forecast detail

as of Aug 19, 2026, 6:30 PM EDT

Rating

Tossup

Win probability

R 64%

Estimated margin

R+3.7

5th–95th interval

R+20.7 to D+13.1

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+4.0

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Global Strategy Group	Aug 5–Aug 9, 2026	500 lv	Rep 47.0% Dem 43.0%	R+4.0	—	Source
Global Strategy Group	Mar 19–Mar 22, 2026	400 lv	Rep 48.0% Dem 42.0%	R+6.0	—	Source
Public Policy Polling	Oct 10–Oct 11, 2025	585 lv	Rep 41.0% Dem 41.0%	Even	D+0.2 R+0.2 lean removed	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction PA-1 Aug 19, 2026

New PA-1 poll shows a close race, and our forecast does not move

Global Strategy Group has Republicans at 47 percent and Democrats at 43 in the Bucks County district; our model still gives the Democrat a 37 percent chance.

One new poll in Pennsylvania's 1st District has the Republican at 47 percent and the Democrat at 43 percent. It was conducted by Global Strategy Group among 500 likely voters, fielded August 5-9. With a sample that size, a four-point margin describes a close race rather than a settled one.

Our...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5