PA-1

Bob Harvie (Dem)
Brian Fitzpatrick (Rep · incumbent)

Tossup

Republicans60%

This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 59,635 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Tossup

Republicans61%

This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 61,018 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+2.1

5th–95th interval

R+16.0 to D+11.9

Estimated margin

R+2.4

5th–95th interval

R+16.3 to D+11.6

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+6.6

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Public Opinion Strategies rep sponsor	Sep 11–Sep 14, 2026	400 rv	Brian Fitzpatrick 51.0% Bob Harvie 42.0%	R+9.0	—	Source
GQR dem sponsor	Aug 19–Aug 23, 2026	400 lv	Brian Fitzpatrick 49.0% Bob Harvie 48.0%	R+1.0	—	Source
Global Strategy Group dem sponsor	Aug 5–Aug 9, 2026	500 lv	Brian Fitzpatrick 47.0% Bob Harvie 43.0%	R+4.0	—	Source
Global Strategy Group dem sponsor	Mar 19–Mar 22, 2026	400 lv	Brian Fitzpatrick 48.0% Bob Harvie 42.0%	R+6.0	—	Source
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor	Oct 10–Oct 11, 2025	585 lv	Brian Fitzpatrick 41.0% Bob Harvie 41.0%	Even	D+1.5 R+1.5 lean removed	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction PA-1 Sep 17, 2026

NRCC-sponsored poll puts Fitzpatrick up nine in PA-1; our forecast is unchanged

Our model still gives Bob Harvie a 37 in 100 chance against Brian Fitzpatrick, with a mean margin of R+3.

A Public Opinion Strategies survey of 400 registered voters in Pennsylvania's 1st District, fielded September 11-14 and sponsored by the NRCC, has Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick at 51 percent and Democrat Bob Harvie at 42 percent. The poll was released on x.com. It is the only new number...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction PA-1 Aug 31, 2026

Two Global Strategy Group polls of PA-1 tilt our forecast back toward Fitzpatrick

Both surveys put the Republican incumbent ahead by mid-single digits, and our estimate of Bob Harvie's chance slips a point to 36 percent.

Two Global Strategy Group surveys of Pennsylvania's 1st District have entered our average, and both show Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick ahead of Democrat Bob Harvie. The more recent, of 500 likely voters fielded August 5-9, had Fitzpatrick at 47 percent and Harvie at 43. An earlier one, of 400...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction PA-1 Aug 31, 2026

GQR poll finds PA-1 within a point; our forecast nudges a point toward Harvie

The new survey leaves Brian Fitzpatrick favored in our model, with Bob Harvie's chance rising from 36 percent to 37 percent.

A GQR survey of 400 likely voters in Pennsylvania's 1st District, fielded August 19-23, put Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick at 49 percent and Democrat Bob Harvie at 48 percent. On a sample that size, a one-point separation is not a lead. The race is close.

Our model now gives Harvie a 37...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction PA-1 Aug 19, 2026

New PA-1 poll shows a close race, and our forecast does not move

Global Strategy Group has Republicans at 47 percent and Democrats at 43 in the Bucks County district; our model still gives the Democrat a 37 percent chance.

One new poll in Pennsylvania's 1st District has the Republican at 47 percent and the Democrat at 43 percent. It was conducted by Global Strategy Group among 500 likely voters, fielded August 5-9. With a sample that size, a four-point margin describes a close race rather than a settled one.

Our...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5