SC-7
- John Vincent (Dem)
- Russell Fry (Rep · incumbent)
Favors Rep
Republicans99%
Republicans are favored, winning 98,809 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans99%
Republicans are favored, winning 98,780 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+19.2
5th–95th interval
R+33.2 to R+5.2
Estimated margin
R+19.1
5th–95th interval
R+33.1 to R+5.1
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+5.2
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blueprint Polling dem sponsor | Jul 27–Jul 28, 2026 | 557 lv | Russell Fry 41.1% John Vincent 36.7% | R+4.4 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.