AR-4
- James Russell (Dem)
- Bruce Westerman (Rep · incumbent)
Favors Rep
Republicans100%
Republicans are favored, winning 99,997 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans100%
Republicans are favored, winning 99,997 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+35.1
5th–95th interval
R+49.0 to R+21.1
Estimated margin
R+35.1
5th–95th interval
R+49.0 to R+21.1
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.