VT-1

Becca Balint (Dem · incumbent)
Gerald Malloy (Rep)

Favors Dem

Democrats100%

Democrats are favored, winning 100,000 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats100%

Democrats are favored, winning 100,000 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+36.7

5th–95th interval

D+22.8 to D+50.6

Estimated margin

D+36.7

5th–95th interval

D+22.8 to D+50.6

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+26.6 current average: D+26.6

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Becca Balint (D) vs Gerald Malloy (R) vs Ryan Walton (I) · 3 polls
Braun Research	Sep 10–Sep 21, 2026	732 lv	Becca Balint 46.9% Gerald Malloy 30.3% Ind 0.5%	D+16.7	—	Source
Braun Research	Sep 10–Sep 21, 2026	817 a	Becca Balint 43.3% Gerald Malloy 28.3% Ind 0.8%	D+15.0	—	Source
University of New Hampshire	Sep 17–Sep 21, 2026	830 lv	Becca Balint 66.0% Gerald Malloy 30.0% Ind 0.0%	D+36.0	—	Source
Adam Ortiz (I) vs Becca Balint (D) vs Gerald Malloy (R) · 2 polls
University of New Hampshire	Jul 15–Jul 20, 2026	949 lv	Becca Balint 63.0% Gerald Malloy 25.0% Ind 2.0%	D+38.0	—	Source
University of New Hampshire	Jun 18–Jun 23, 2026	872 lv	Becca Balint 57.0% Gerald Malloy 26.0% Ind 1.0%	D+31.0	—	Source
Adam Ortiz (I) vs Becca Balint (D) vs Mark Coester (R) · 2 polls Polled before the field was set
University of New Hampshire	Jul 15–Jul 20, 2026	948 lv	Becca Balint 64.0% Rep 25.0% Ind 2.0%	D+39.0	—	Source
University of New Hampshire	Jun 18–Jun 23, 2026	871 lv	Becca Balint 57.0% Rep 26.0% Ind 1.0%	D+31.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction VT-1 Sep 28, 2026

Braun poll shows a smaller Balint lead, and our VT-1 margin estimate drops by nine

Our model still puts Becca Balint's chance of winning at 100 percent. Its projected margin over Gerald Malloy fell from D+43.5 to D+34.4.

A Braun Research survey for Vermont Public Radio, fielded September 10-21, finds Democrat Becca Balint ahead of Republican Gerald Malloy in VT-1, though by less than our model had projected. Among 732 likely voters, Balint takes 46.92 percent to Malloy's 30.25 percent, a gap of about 17 points....

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction VT-1 Sep 24, 2026

UNH poll puts Balint 36 points up in VT-1, and our forecast barely moves

The University of New Hampshire survey is close to the margin our model already expected, and the district's win probability is unchanged.

A University of New Hampshire survey of 830 likely voters in Vermont's first district, fielded September 17-21, has Democratic incumbent Becca Balint at 66 percent and Republican Gerald Malloy at 30 percent, with no independent support recorded. That is a 36-point margin.

Our model now puts the...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction VT-1 Aug 18, 2026

New Vermont polling leaves VT-1 where our model already had it

Two University of New Hampshire readings show the Democrat near 63 or 64 percent, and our projected margin moved by a tenth of a point.

Two University of New Hampshire surveys of 954 likely voters in Vermont's at-large district, each fielded July 15-20, put the Democrat at 63 percent and 25 percent for the Republican in one, and 64 to 25 in the other. That is a gap of 38 to 39 points.

Our forecast did not need much revision. The...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5