VT-1

Democrats are favored, winning in 100 in 100 simulations.

Forecast detail

as of Aug 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT

Rating

Favors Dem

Win probability

D 100%

Estimated margin

D+41.7

5th–95th interval

D+24.6 to D+58.9

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

The recent polling here measures 2 different matchups, so there is no single contest to average — the forecast rests on fundamentals (the district's 2024 result and the national environment) until the nominees are settled. Every poll is below, grouped by the matchup it tested.

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Becca Balint (D) vs Mark Coester (R) · 2 polls
University of New Hampshire	Jul 15–Jul 20, 2026	954 lv	Dem 64.0% Rep 25.0%	D+39.0	—	Source
University of New Hampshire	Jun 15–Jun 20, 2026	954 lv	Dem 64.0% Rep 25.0%	D+39.0	—	Source
Becca Balint (D) vs Gerald Malloy (R) · 3 polls
University of New Hampshire	Jul 15–Jul 20, 2026	954 lv	Dem 63.0% Rep 25.0%	D+38.0	—	Source
University of New Hampshire	Jun 18–Jun 23, 2026	887 lv	Dem 57.0% Rep 26.0%	D+31.0	—	Source
University of New Hampshire	Jun 15–Jun 20, 2026	954 lv	Dem 63.0% Rep 25.0%	D+38.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction VT-1 Aug 18, 2026

New Vermont polling leaves VT-1 where our model already had it

Two University of New Hampshire readings show the Democrat near 63 or 64 percent, and our projected margin moved by a tenth of a point.

Two University of New Hampshire surveys of 954 likely voters in Vermont's at-large district, each fielded July 15-20, put the Democrat at 63 percent and 25 percent for the Republican in one, and 64 to 25 in the other. That is a gap of 38 to 39 points.

Our forecast did not need much revision. The...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5