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535

VA-1

  • Shannon Taylor (Dem)
  • Shannon Taylor (Dem)
  • Rob Wittman (Rep · incumbent)
  • Rob Wittman (Rep · incumbent)

Tossup

Republicans52%

This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 52,499 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Tossup

Republicans52%

This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 52,394 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+0.5

5th–95th interval

R+14.5 to D+13.4

Estimated margin

R+0.5

5th–95th interval

R+14.5 to D+13.4

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+4.0 current average: D+2.8

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government Sep 23–Sep 28, 2026 609 lv Shannon Taylor 50.0% Rob Wittman 46.0% D+4.0 — Source
DCCC Targeting Team dem sponsor Sep 15–Sep 17, 2026 519 lv Rob Wittman 47.0% Shannon Taylor 46.0% R+1.0 — Source
Ragnar Research Partners rep sponsor Mar 10–Mar 12, 2026 400 lv Rob Wittman 46.0% Shannon Taylor 42.0% R+4.0 — Source
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Aug 8–Aug 9, 2025 541 rv Rob Wittman 41.0% Shannon Taylor 40.0% R+1.0 D+0.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction VA-1 Oct 1, 2026

New VA-1 poll moves our forecast to a near coin flip

A Washington Post/Schar School survey with Shannon Taylor at 50% narrows Rob Wittman's edge in our model, which had held steady after the last round of polling.

A Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government survey of 609 likely voters in Virginia's 1st District, fielded September 23-28, puts Democrat Shannon Taylor at 50% and Republican Rep. Rob Wittman at 46%. That gap is small for a sample of this size. The race is...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction VA-1 Sep 21, 2026

A one-point margin in VA-1 leaves our forecast where it was

A DCCC Targeting Team poll shows Wittman 47, Taylor 46; our model still gives the Democrat a 38 in 100 chance.

The only new number in Virginia's 1st District comes from the DCCC Targeting Team, which surveyed 519 likely voters September 15-17 and found Republican incumbent Rob Wittman at 47 percent and Democrat Shannon Taylor at 46. No margin of error is attached to the survey in what we have, and a...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5