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535 Final forecast · Nov 3
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2026 midterm results

Final forecast ·

Download the final forecast (JSON)

Senate results

21 Democratic 13 Republican

Winners recorded for seats on the ballot

1 outstanding of 35 races

House results

255 Democratic 168 Republican

Winners recorded for seats on the ballot

12 outstanding of 435 races

Senate final forecast

Democrats control in 78,690 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Data correction, Oct 23 Data correction, Oct 26
Aug 16 D 46% R 54% Election Day

Democrats control in 78,259 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Data correction, Oct 23 Data correction, Oct 26
Aug 16 D 46% R 54% Election Day
51 = majority

mean 52.5 Dem-caucus seats Dashed line marks a majority.

51 = majority

mean 52.4 Dem-caucus seats Dashed line marks a majority.

Dem Rep No forecast yet No Senate race this year

Darker is likelier. The palest shades are tossups: the leading side wins 65% of simulations or fewer.

Full Senate forecast: every race

House final forecast

Democrats control in 97,570 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Data correction, Oct 23 Data correction, Oct 25 Data correction, Oct 26
Aug 16 D 94% R 6% Election Day

Democrats control in 97,498 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Data correction, Oct 23 Data correction, Oct 25 Data correction, Oct 26
Aug 16 D 94% R 6% Election Day
218 = majority

mean 243.2 Dem-caucus seats Dashed line marks a majority.

218 = majority

mean 243.2 Dem-caucus seats Dashed line marks a majority.

Dem Rep No forecast yet

Darker is likelier. The palest shades are tossups: the leading side wins 65% of simulations or fewer.

Our error model leaves out one correlated term, so this figure is slightly firmer than it should be. Known limitations.

Full House forecast: all 435 districts

National environment

Generic ballot: D+8.7 (43 polls, 45-day window, as of the final forecast)

Generic ballot: D+8.7 (45 polls, 45-day window, as of the final forecast)

Latest dispatches

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Daily brief Nov 3, 2026

On Election Day our model gives Democrats a 79% Senate chance and 97% in the House

Our generic ballot average stands at D+8.7 across 43 polls, and Michigan, South Carolina and Maine's 2nd District moved in our model.

As of 6:32 a.m. Eastern on Election Day, our model gives Democrats a 79 in 100 chance of winning control of the Senate and Republicans 21%. Our simulations average 52.5 Democratic seats. Democrats...

Read the full dispatch →

Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction Iowa Senate Nov 2, 2026

AtlasIntel has Turek at 50.5 in Iowa as our estimate moves back to 54%

A new survey of 1,219 likely voters nudges our model slightly toward the Democrat a day before the vote, though the Iowa Senate race remains close.

An AtlasIntel survey of 1,219 likely voters, fielded October 28 to November 1, has Democrat Josh Turek at 50.5% and Republican Ashley Hinson at 46.4% in the open-seat Iowa Senate race. The seat is...

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Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction New Hampshire Senate Nov 2, 2026

Our New Hampshire Senate forecast eases to 95 percent on the eve of the election

The only new survey, from AtlasIntel, again pairs Chris Pappas with John Sununu rather than Scott Brown, the Republican on our ballot.

Our model now gives Democrat Chris Pappas a 95 in 100 chance of winning the open New Hampshire Senate seat against Republican Scott Brown. That is down from 97% in our run at 8:32 PM ET on November...

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Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction Maine Senate Nov 2, 2026

AtlasIntel has Jackson up 9 in Maine, and his chance moves back to 80 percent

The final-day survey nudges our projected margin to D+3.9, but our model still allows for a Collins win in a meaningful share of outcomes.

An AtlasIntel survey of 967 likely voters, fielded October 28 to November 1, has Democrat Troy Jackson at 53.1 percent and Republican Sen. Susan Collins at 44.0 percent in the Maine Senate race....

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Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction Kansas Senate Nov 2, 2026

AtlasIntel poll edges our Kansas Senate odds for Hamilton to 79 percent

A large late survey puts Adam Hamilton 7 points ahead of Roger Marshall, and our model moves by a single point the day before the election.

An AtlasIntel survey of 2,038 likely voters, fielded October 28 to November 1, found Democrat Adam Hamilton at 51.9 percent and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall at 44.9 percent. That is a 7-point...

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Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5