FL-21
- James Martin (Dem)
- Brian Mast (Rep · incumbent)
Favors Rep
Republicans94%
Republicans are favored, winning 93,587 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans94%
Republicans are favored, winning 93,587 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+12.9
5th–95th interval
R+26.9 to D+1.1
Estimated margin
R+12.9
5th–95th interval
R+26.9 to D+1.1
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.