NM-2

Gabe Vasquez (Dem · incumbent)
Greg Cunningham (Rep)

Favors Dem

Democrats95%

Democrats are favored, winning 95,340 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats95%

Democrats are favored, winning 95,340 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+14.2

5th–95th interval

D+0.3 to D+28.1

Estimated margin

D+14.2

5th–95th interval

D+0.3 to D+28.1

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+3.0 current average: D+3.0

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
SurveyUSA	Aug 28–Sep 2, 2026	554 lv	Gabe Vasquez 46.0% Greg Cunningham 43.0%	D+3.0	—	Source
co/efficient rep sponsor	Apr 26–Apr 28, 2026	879 lv	Gabe Vasquez 43.0% Greg Cunningham 41.0%	D+2.0	D+4.3 R+2.3 lean removed	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction NM-2 Sep 24, 2026

A three-point poll in NM-2 trims our margin but not the odds

SurveyUSA finds Gabe Vasquez and Greg Cunningham close; our model still gives the Democrat a 94 in 100 chance in New Mexico's 2nd District.

The one new survey in New Mexico's 2nd District shows a close race. A SurveyUSA poll for KOB-TV in Albuquerque, of 554 likely voters fielded August 28 to September 2, has Democratic incumbent Gabe Vasquez at 46 percent and Republican Greg Cunningham at 43 percent — three points apart, with the...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5