NM-2
Democrats are favored, winning in 91 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 91%
Estimated margin
D+13.6
5th–95th interval
R+3.2 to D+30.6
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+2.7
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | Apr 26–Apr 28, 2026 | 879 lv | Dem 43.0% Rep 41.0% | D+2.0 | D+2.7 R+0.7 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.