CA-5
- Michael Masuda (Dem)
- Tom McClintock (Rep · incumbent)
Favors Rep
Republicans94%
Republicans are favored, winning 93,583 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans94%
Republicans are favored, winning 93,583 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+12.8
5th–95th interval
R+26.8 to D+1.0
Estimated margin
R+12.8
5th–95th interval
R+26.8 to D+1.0
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.