OH-9

Marcy Kaptur (Dem · incumbent)
Derek Merrin (Rep)

Favors Dem

Democrats91%

Democrats are favored, winning 91,165 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats89%

Democrats are favored, winning 88,988 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+11.4

5th–95th interval

R+2.5 to D+25.3

Estimated margin

D+10.4

5th–95th interval

R+3.5 to D+24.2

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+0.8

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Derek Merrin (R) vs Marcy Kaptur (D) · 1 poll
DCCC Targeting Team dem sponsor	Sep 22–Sep 23, 2026	481 lv	Derek Merrin 48.0% Marcy Kaptur 48.0%	Even	—	Source
David Gedert (LIB) vs Derek Merrin (R) vs Marcy Kaptur (D) · 1 poll
McLaughlin & Associates rep sponsor	Apr 18–Apr 20, 2026	400 lv	Derek Merrin 47.0% Marcy Kaptur 43.0% Other 3.0%	R+4.0	R+1.2 R+2.8 lean removed	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction OH-9 Sep 29, 2026

A tied poll in Ohio's 9th District barely moves our forecast for Kaptur

A DCCC Targeting Team survey shows Kaptur and Merrin at 48% each, but our model still has the Democratic incumbent well ahead on average.

A new survey in Ohio's 9th District shows a tied race. The DCCC Targeting Team poll of 481 likely voters, fielded September 22-23, has Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur and Republican Derek Merrin at 48% each.

The poll changed little in our forecast. Our model now gives Kaptur a 91 in 100 chance of...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5