CO-3
- Dwayne Romero (Dem)
- Jeff Hurd (Rep · incumbent)
Favors Dem
Democrats75%
Democrats are favored, winning 74,873 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Dem
Democrats75%
Democrats are favored, winning 74,761 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
D+5.7
5th–95th interval
R+8.1 to D+19.7
Estimated margin
D+5.7
5th–95th interval
R+8.2 to D+19.7
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+1.8
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Romero (D) vs Jeff Hurd (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Keating Research, Inc. dem sponsor | Jul 21–Jul 23, 2026 | 500 lv | Jeff Hurd 46.0% Dwayne Romero 45.0% | R+1.0 | — | Source |
| Alex Kelloff (D) vs Jeff Hurd (R) · 2 polls Polled before the field was set | ||||||
| Ragnar Research Partners rep sponsor | Mar 10–Mar 12, 2026 | 400 lv | Jeff Hurd 46.0% Dem 41.0% | R+5.0 | — | Source |
| Expedition Strategies dem sponsor | Jan 8–Jan 12, 2026 | 400 lv | Jeff Hurd 48.0% Dem 39.0% | R+9.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.