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535

PA-10

  • Janelle Stelson (Dem)
  • Scott Perry (Rep · incumbent)

Favors Dem

Democrats85%

Democrats are favored, winning 84,639 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats85%

Democrats are favored, winning 84,639 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+8.7

5th–95th interval

R+5.3 to D+22.6

Estimated margin

D+8.7

5th–95th interval

R+5.3 to D+22.6

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+3.0 current average: D+3.0

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Franklin & Marshall College Sep 9–Sep 20, 2026 378 rv Janelle Stelson 47.0% Scott Perry 44.0% D+3.0 — Source
Normington, Petts & Associates dem sponsor Apr 20–Apr 23, 2026 400 rv Janelle Stelson 51.0% Scott Perry 45.0% D+6.0 — Source
Public Policy Polling Nov 18–Nov 19, 2025 549 rv Janelle Stelson 48.0% Scott Perry 44.0% D+4.0 D+5.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Jul 10–Jul 11, 2025 559 rv Janelle Stelson 46.0% Scott Perry 43.0% D+3.0 D+4.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction PA-10 Sep 24, 2026

Close PA-10 poll trims our margin for Stelson but not the shape of the race

Franklin & Marshall finds Janelle Stelson at 47% and Scott Perry at 44%, and our model now gives her an 82 in 100 chance.

A Franklin & Marshall College survey of 378 registered voters, fielded September 9-20, puts Democrat Janelle Stelson at 47% and Republican incumbent Scott Perry at 44% in Pennsylvania's 10th District. That three-point separation, on a sample that small, describes a close race rather than a clear...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5