FL-22

Pia Dandiya (Dem)
Casey Askar (Rep)

Favors Dem

Democrats99%

Democrats are favored, winning 99,148 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats99%

Democrats are favored, winning 99,283 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+20.3

5th–95th interval

D+6.3 to D+34.2

Estimated margin

D+20.8

5th–95th interval

D+6.8 to D+34.7

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: Even

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Casey Askar (R) vs Pia Dandiya (D) · 2 polls
Impact Research dem sponsor	Aug 24–Aug 31, 2026	n/a lv	Pia Dandiya 46.0% Casey Askar 44.0%	D+2.0	—	Source
Tavern Research	Aug 10–Aug 12, 2026	551 lv	Pia Dandiya 50.0% Casey Askar 50.0%	Even	—	Source
Belinda Keiser (R) vs Pia Dandiya (D) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
GQR dem sponsor	Jun 18–Jun 25, 2026	400 lv	Rep 46.0% Pia Dandiya 45.0%	R+1.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction FL-22 Sep 9, 2026

A third close FL-22 poll, and our forecast does not budge

Impact Research puts Pia Dandiya two points up on Casey Askar; our model still gives her a 97 in 100 chance and a mean margin of D+17.4.

An Impact Research survey of likely voters in Florida's 22nd District, sponsored by House Majority PAC and fielded August 24-31, has Democrat Pia Dandiya at 46 percent and Republican Casey Askar at 44 percent. Two points is a close race, not a lead. The poll was conducted for a partisan sponsor,...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction FL-22 Aug 31, 2026

Another tied FL-22 poll trims our margin, not our favorite

Tavern Research shows Pia Dandiya and Casey Askar level at 50 each; our model still gives Dandiya a 95 in 100 chance, down from 97.

A Tavern Research survey of 551 likely voters in Florida's 22nd District, fielded August 10-12, put Democrat Pia Dandiya and Republican Casey Askar at 50 percent each. The race is tied in that poll.

Our model now gives Dandiya a 95 in 100 chance of winning the seat, against 5 percent for Askar....

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction FL-22 Aug 21, 2026

A tied poll in FL-22 leaves our forecast where it was

Tavern Research finds 50-50 in a district our model still scores at D+19.2, and the Democratic win probability did not move.

One new poll of Florida's 22nd District has the race even. Tavern Research surveyed 551 likely voters on August 10-12 and found the Republican and the Democrat at 50 percent each.

Our forecast did not follow it. As of 12:03 PM ET on August 21, our model gives the Democrat a 97 in 100 chance in...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5