FL-22
Democrats are favored, winning in 97 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 97%
Estimated margin
D+18.9
5th–95th interval
D+1.8 to D+35.8
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+1.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GQR | Jun 18–Jun 25, 2026 | 400 lv | Rep 46.0% Dem 45.0% | R+1.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.