UT-1

Ben McAdams (Dem)
Riley Owen (Rep)
Riley Owen (Rep)

Favors Rep

Republicans96%

Republicans are favored, winning 95,538 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans96%

Republicans are favored, winning 95,538 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+14.4

5th–95th interval

R+28.4 to R+0.4

Estimated margin

R+14.4

5th–95th interval

R+28.4 to R+0.4

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+41.5 current average: D+41.5

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Lighthouse Research	Aug 31–Sep 10, 2026	515 rv	Ben McAdams 62.7% Riley Owen 21.2% Other 3.3%	D+41.5	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction UT-1 Oct 1, 2026

A lopsided UT-1 poll moves our forecast, but Owen remains a clear favorite

A Lighthouse Research survey shows McAdams far ahead, and our model has Riley Owen ahead by about 13 points while widening the range of outcomes.

A Lighthouse Research survey of 515 registered voters in Utah's 1st District, fielded August 31 to September 10 and sponsored by the Utah Debate Commission, found Democrat Ben McAdams at 62.7% and Republican Riley Owen at 21.2%. Other candidates drew 3.3%. The remaining 12.8% is not assigned to...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5