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535

MD-1

  • Dan Schwartz (Dem)
  • Andy Harris (Rep · incumbent)

Favors Rep

Republicans91%

Republicans are favored, winning 90,843 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans91%

Republicans are favored, winning 90,864 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+11.3

5th–95th interval

R+25.2 to D+2.7

Estimated margin

R+11.3

5th–95th interval

R+25.2 to D+2.7

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+13.8

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Z to A Research dem sponsor Jul 23–Jul 27, 2026 482 lv Andy Harris 52.0% Dan Schwartz 39.0% R+13.0 — Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction MD-1 Aug 31, 2026

New MD-1 poll matches our model's margin, and little else moves

A Z to A Research survey puts Andy Harris 13 points ahead of Dan Schwartz; our model's mean margin is R+12.9.

A Z to A Research survey of 482 likely voters in Maryland's 1st District, fielded July 23-27 and posted on x.com, gives Republican incumbent Andy Harris 52 percent and Democrat Dan Schwartz 39 percent.

That is a 13-point margin, and it lands almost exactly on top of what our model already had....

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5