IA-2
- Lindsay James (Dem)
- Joe Mitchell (Rep)
Favors Rep
Republicans71%
Republicans are favored, winning 71,242 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans71%
Republicans are favored, winning 71,180 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+4.8
5th–95th interval
R+18.6 to D+9.2
Estimated margin
R+4.8
5th–95th interval
R+18.6 to D+9.2
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+0.3
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group dem sponsor | Jul 14–Jul 19, 2026 | n/a lv | Lindsay James 46.0% Joe Mitchell 45.0% | D+1.0 | — | Source |
| Public Policy Polling dem sponsor | Apr 13–Apr 14, 2026 | 673 rv | Lindsay James 36.0% Joe Mitchell 33.0% | D+3.0 | D+4.5 R+1.5 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.