ID-1
- Kaylee Peterson (Dem)
- Russ Fulcher (Rep · incumbent)
- Sarah Zabel (Ind)
Favors Rep
Republicans100%
Republicans are favored, winning 99,996 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans100%
Republicans are favored, winning 99,996 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+34.8
5th–95th interval
R+48.9 to R+20.8
Estimated margin
R+34.7
5th–95th interval
R+48.7 to R+20.7
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+17.7
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaylee Peterson (D) vs Russ Fulcher (R) vs Sarah Zabel (I) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Change Research ind sponsor | Jul 28–Jul 30, 2026 | n/a lv | Russ Fulcher 46.0% Kaylee Peterson 25.0% Sarah Zabel 4.0% Other 2.0% | R+21.0 | R+21.5 D+0.5 lean removed | Source |
| Russ Fulcher (R) vs Sarah Zabel (I) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Change Research ind sponsor | Jul 28–Jul 30, 2026 | n/a lv | Russ Fulcher 46.0% Sarah Zabel 25.0% Other 3.0% | — | — | Source |
| Kaylee Peterson (D) vs Russ Fulcher (R) vs Sarah Zabel (I) · 1 poll | ||||||
| SurveyUSA ind sponsor | Jul 7–Jul 14, 2026 | 480 lv | Russ Fulcher 45.0% Kaylee Peterson 35.0% Sarah Zabel 6.0% | R+10.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.