NC-14
Republicans are favored, winning in 74 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 74%
Estimated margin
R+6.8
5th–95th interval
R+23.9 to D+10.0
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 10–Mar 12, 2026 | 400 lv | Rep 48.0% Dem 40.0% | R+8.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.