FL-28
- Phil Ehr (Dem)
- Carlos Giménez (Rep · incumbent)
Favors Rep
Republicans99%
Republicans are favored, winning 98,527 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans99%
Republicans are favored, winning 98,527 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+18.5
5th–95th interval
R+32.4 to R+4.6
Estimated margin
R+18.5
5th–95th interval
R+32.4 to R+4.6
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDW Communications | Mar 3–Mar 7, 2026 | 514 lv | Carlos Giménez 46.0% Dem 40.0% | R+6.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.