NV-2

Teresa Benitez-Thompson (Dem)
Dave Flippo (Rep)

Favors Rep

Republicans100%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,772 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans100%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,662 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+24.2

5th–95th interval

R+38.1 to R+10.2

Estimated margin

R+23.1

5th–95th interval

R+37.0 to R+9.1

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+2.0 current average: R+1.7

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
David Flippo (R) vs Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) · 2 polls
GBAO dem sponsor	Aug 31–Sep 3, 2026	500 lv	Teresa Benitez-Thompson 38.0% Dave Flippo 37.0% Other 14.0%	D+1.0	D+0.3 D+0.7 lean removed	Source
Strategies 360 dem sponsor	Aug 22–Aug 26, 2026	400 lv	Dave Flippo 45.0% Teresa Benitez-Thompson 42.0% Other 7.0%	R+3.0	—	Source
David Flippo (R) vs Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) · 1 poll
Wedgewood Polls	Jul 9–Jul 12, 2026	350 lv	Teresa Benitez-Thompson 48.0% Dave Flippo 46.0%	D+2.0	D+1.9 D+0.1 lean removed	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction NV-2 Sep 13, 2026

NV-2 forecast unchanged after the only poll in the race

A GBAO survey has Teresa Benitez-Thompson at 38 and Dave Flippo at 37, but our model still puts the mean margin at R+25.3.

The only poll in our NV-2 file remains a GBAO survey of 500 likely voters, sponsored by the Nevada Alliance and fielded August 31 to September 3. It has Democrat Teresa Benitez-Thompson at 38 percent, Republican Dave Flippo at 37 percent, and 14 percent for other options. That is a close result,...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction NV-2 Sep 8, 2026

A single Nevada poll shows NV-2 close; our forecast still does not

Strategies 360 has Dave Flippo three points ahead of Teresa Benitez-Thompson, a margin far tighter than the 25-point Republican edge in our model.

The only poll in NV-2 in our file is a Strategies 360 survey of 400 likely voters, fielded August 22-26, that put Republican Dave Flippo at 45 percent and Democrat Teresa Benitez-Thompson at 42 percent, with 7 percent for other candidates. A three-point gap on a sample that size is well inside...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5