CA-6

Richard Pan (Dem)
Kevin Kiley (Ind · incumbent)

Favors Dem

Democrats100%

Democrats are favored, winning 99,650 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats100%

Democrats are favored, winning 99,650 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+23.1

5th–95th interval

D+9.2 to D+37.2

Estimated margin

D+23.1

5th–95th interval

D+9.2 to D+37.2

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Other win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Ind-leaning poll current average: I+0.9 current average: I+0.9

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
The Bullfinch Group	Sep 1–Sep 6, 2026	927 lv	Richard Pan 36.7% Kevin Kiley 36.5%	D+0.2	I+0.9 D+1.1 lean removed	Source
The Bullfinch Group	Jul 13–Jul 16, 2026	741 lv	Richard Pan 39.0% Kevin Kiley 35.0%	D+4.0	D+2.9 D+1.1 lean removed	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction CA-6 Sep 30, 2026

A close CA-6 poll trims Richard Pan's projected margin but leaves his odds unchanged

A Bullfinch Group survey shows Pan and independent Rep. Kevin Kiley nearly even, and our model moved about three points toward Kiley in response.

A new poll of California's 6th District finds a close race between Democrat Richard Pan and Kevin Kiley, the independent incumbent. The Bullfinch Group survey of 927 likely voters, fielded September 1-6 and sponsored by the Independent Leadership Council, puts Pan at 36.7 percent and Kiley at...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5