MN-1

Jake Johnson (Dem)
Brad Finstad (Rep · incumbent)

Favors Rep

Republicans77%

Republicans are favored, winning 76,930 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans75%

Republicans are favored, winning 75,268 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+6.2

5th–95th interval

R+20.3 to D+7.7

Estimated margin

R+5.8

5th–95th interval

R+19.8 to D+8.2

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+0.5

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
GBAO dem sponsor	Sep 18–Sep 21, 2026	500 lv	Jake Johnson 47.0% Brad Finstad 46.0%	D+1.0	D+0.3 D+0.7 lean removed	Source
Ragnar Research Partners rep sponsor	Mar 12–Mar 14, 2026	400 lv	Brad Finstad 52.0% Jake Johnson 42.0%	R+10.0	—	Source
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor	Feb 2–Feb 3, 2026	708 rv	Brad Finstad 44.0% Jake Johnson 41.0%	R+3.0	R+1.5 R+1.5 lean removed	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction MN-1 Sep 24, 2026

Partisan poll shows MN-1 close, but our forecast is unmoved

A GBAO survey for House Majority PAC has Jake Johnson at 47% and Brad Finstad at 46%; our model still gives Johnson a 25% chance.

A new poll of Minnesota's 1st District finds a close race. GBAO, polling for House Majority PAC, surveyed 500 likely voters September 18-21 and put Democrat Jake Johnson at 47% and Republican incumbent Brad Finstad at 46%. A one-point separation in a sample that size does not establish a leader;...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5