WI-3
- Rebecca Cooke (Dem)
- Derrick Van Orden (Rep · incumbent)
Favors Dem
Democrats83%
Democrats are favored, winning 82,506 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Dem
Democrats82%
Democrats are favored, winning 82,490 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
D+8.0
5th–95th interval
R+6.0 to D+21.9
Estimated margin
D+7.9
5th–95th interval
R+6.0 to D+21.9
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+3.3
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM3 Research dem sponsor | Jun 20–Jun 25, 2026 | 535 lv | Rebecca Cooke 50.0% Derrick Van Orden 46.0% | D+4.0 | — | Source |
| FM3 Research dem sponsor | Jun 20–Jun 25, 2026 | 535 lv | Rebecca Cooke 50.0% Derrick Van Orden 46.0% | D+4.0 | — | Source |
| Impact Research dem sponsor | May 26–May 31, 2026 | 500 lv | Rebecca Cooke 50.0% Derrick Van Orden 46.0% | D+4.0 | — | Source |
| Impact Research dem sponsor | Feb 12–Feb 17, 2026 | 500 lv | Rebecca Cooke 49.0% Derrick Van Orden 48.0% | D+1.0 | — | Source |
| Public Policy Polling dem sponsor | Oct 14–Oct 15, 2025 | 609 rv | Rebecca Cooke 44.0% Derrick Van Orden 42.0% | D+2.0 | D+3.5 R+1.5 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.