FL-27

Eliott Rodriguez (Dem)
Maria Elvira Salazar (Rep · incumbent)

Favors Rep

Republicans88%

Republicans are favored, winning 88,304 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans86%

Republicans are favored, winning 86,415 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+10.1

5th–95th interval

R+24.0 to D+3.9

Estimated margin

R+9.3

5th–95th interval

R+23.3 to D+4.7

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+1.4

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Eliott Rodriguez (D) vs María Elvira Salazar (R) · 3 polls
Tulchin Research dem sponsor	Sep 8–Sep 13, 2026	600 lv	Maria Elvira Salazar 47.0% Eliott Rodriguez 46.0%	R+1.0	—	Source
Bendixen & Amandi International dem sponsor	Aug 25–Aug 30, 2026	600 lv	Eliott Rodriguez 45.0% Maria Elvira Salazar 45.0%	Even	—	Source
Blueprint Polling	Mar 6–Mar 8, 2026	451 rv	Maria Elvira Salazar 46.0% Eliott Rodriguez 43.0%	R+3.0	—	Source
María Elvira Salazar (R) vs Robin Peguero (D) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
Blueprint Polling	Mar 6–Mar 8, 2026	451 rv	Maria Elvira Salazar 47.0% Dem 40.0%	R+7.0	—	Source
Daniella Levine Cava (D) vs María Elvira Salazar (R) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
Kaplan Strategies	Jul 25–Jul 27, 2025	804 lv	Dem 44.0% Maria Elvira Salazar 42.0%	D+2.0	—	Source
María Elvira Salazar (R) vs Mike Davey (D) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
Kaplan Strategies	Jul 25–Jul 27, 2025	804 lv	Maria Elvira Salazar 45.0% Dem 38.0%	R+7.0	—	Source
Alexander Fornino (D) vs María Elvira Salazar (R) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
Kaplan Strategies	Jul 25–Jul 27, 2025	804 lv	Maria Elvira Salazar 45.0% Dem 35.0%	R+10.0	—	Source
María Elvira Salazar (R) vs Richard Lamondin (D) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
Kaplan Strategies	Jul 25–Jul 27, 2025	804 lv	Maria Elvira Salazar 45.0% Dem 34.0%	R+11.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction FL-27 Sep 17, 2026

A close FL-27 poll again leaves our forecast unchanged

Tulchin Research puts Salazar a point ahead of Rodriguez, while our model still gives the Democrat a 12 percent chance.

A Tulchin Research survey of 600 likely voters in Florida's 27th District, sponsored by House Majority PAC and fielded September 8-13, has Republican incumbent Maria Elvira Salazar at 47 percent and Democrat Eliott Rodriguez at 46 percent. A one-point separation in a sample that size is not a...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction FL-27 Sep 14, 2026

A tied poll in FL-27 leaves our forecast where it was

Bendixen & Amandi finds Salazar and Rodriguez at 45 each, but our model still gives the Democrat an 11 percent chance in the Miami district.

One new survey of Florida's 27th District has the race even. Bendixen & Amandi International, polling 600 likely voters from August 25 to 30 and reported by Politico, put Republican incumbent Maria Elvira Salazar at 45 percent and Democrat Eliott Rodriguez at 45 percent.

Our forecast did not...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5