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535

GA-11

  • Chris Harden (Dem)
  • John Cowan (Rep)

Favors Rep

Republicans100%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,780 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans100%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,650 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+23.8

5th–95th interval

R+37.9 to R+9.9

Estimated margin

R+22.7

5th–95th interval

R+36.8 to R+8.8

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+1.3

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Miller Consulting Services dem sponsor Aug 31–Sep 11, 2026 402 lv Chris Harden 42.0% John Cowan 40.0% D+2.0 — Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction GA-11 Sep 21, 2026

Lone GA-11 poll shows a close race; our model still sees a wide Republican edge

A Miller Consulting Services survey put Chris Harden two points up on John Cowan, but our forecast moved by a tenth of a point.

One new poll of Georgia's 11th District has Democrat Chris Harden at 42 percent and Republican John Cowan at 40 percent. That is a Miller Consulting Services survey of 402 likely voters, fielded August 31 to September 11. With a sample that size, a two-point gap is not a lead; the poll describes...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5