CA-1
- Mike McGuire (Dem)
- James Gallagher (Rep · incumbent)
Favors Rep
Republicans99%
Republicans are favored, winning 99,033 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans99%
Republicans are favored, winning 99,033 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+19.9
5th–95th interval
R+33.9 to R+6.0
Estimated margin
R+19.9
5th–95th interval
R+33.9 to R+6.0
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.