MI-4

Sean McCann (Dem)
Bill Huizenga (Rep · incumbent)

Tossup

Republicans54%

This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 54,403 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Tossup

Republicans54%

This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 54,271 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+0.9

5th–95th interval

R+14.9 to D+13.0

Estimated margin

R+0.9

5th–95th interval

R+14.8 to D+13.1

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+0.5

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
GBAO dem sponsor	Sep 13–Sep 16, 2026	500 lv	Sean McCann 47.0% Bill Huizenga 46.0%	D+1.0	D+0.3 D+0.7 lean removed	Source
GBAO dem sponsor	May 28–Jun 1, 2026	500 lv	Sean McCann 48.0% Bill Huizenga 45.0%	D+3.0	D+2.3 D+0.7 lean removed	Source
Ragnar Research Partners rep sponsor	Mar 12–Mar 14, 2026	400 lv	Bill Huizenga 48.0% Sean McCann 42.0%	R+6.0	—	Source
Public Policy Polling	Nov 20–Nov 21, 2025	559 rv	Bill Huizenga 44.0% Sean McCann 42.0%	R+2.0	R+0.5 R+1.5 lean removed	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction MI-4 Sep 24, 2026

New MI-4 poll shows a close race, and our forecast does not move

A GBAO survey has Sean McCann at 47 percent and Bill Huizenga at 46; our model still gives McCann a 46 in 100 chance.

A GBAO survey of 500 likely voters in Michigan's 4th District, fielded September 13-16, put Democrat Sean McCann at 47 percent and Republican incumbent Bill Huizenga at 46 percent. A one-point separation in a sample that size is not a lead in any meaningful sense. The poll describes a close race...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5