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535

NC-7

  • Kim Hardy (Dem)
  • David Rouzer (Rep · incumbent)

Favors Rep

Republicans77%

Republicans are favored, winning 77,475 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans77%

Republicans are favored, winning 77,411 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+6.5

5th–95th interval

R+20.5 to D+7.5

Estimated margin

R+6.4

5th–95th interval

R+20.4 to D+7.5

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+5.3

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
David Rouzer (R) vs Kimberly Hardy (D) vs Maad Abu-Ghazalah (LIB) · 1 poll
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Aug 19–Aug 20, 2026 517 rv David Rouzer 45.0% Kim Hardy 39.0% Other 3.0% R+6.0 R+4.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source
David Rouzer (R) vs Kimberly Hardy (D) · 1 poll
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Aug 19–Aug 20, 2026 517 rv David Rouzer 49.0% Kim Hardy 43.0% R+6.0 R+4.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction NC-7 Aug 31, 2026

A third PPP read of NC-7 lands where the others did, with Rouzer at 45

Our model now gives Kim Hardy a 20 in 100 chance in the district, down slightly from 22 percent in the previous run.

A Public Policy Polling survey of 517 registered voters in North Carolina's 7th District, fielded August 19-20, put Republican incumbent David Rouzer at 45 percent and Democrat Kim Hardy at 39 percent, with 3 percent for other candidates. That is the same six-point gap this site reported from two...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction NC-7 Aug 28, 2026

Two PPP reads of NC-7 both show Rouzer up six

Our model nudged Kim Hardy's chances to 22 in 100, a two-point move that leaves the district roughly where it was.

Public Policy Polling surveyed 517 likely voters in North Carolina's 7th District on August 19-20 and released two versions of the same question. The first, which included an option for other candidates, put Republican incumbent David Rouzer at 45 percent and Democrat Kim Hardy at 39, with 3...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5