FL-14
- Kathy Castor (Dem · incumbent)
- Mike Beltran (Rep)
Favors Dem
Democrats100%
Democrats are favored, winning 99,880 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Dem
Democrats100%
Democrats are favored, winning 99,880 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
D+26.0
5th–95th interval
D+12.1 to D+40.0
Estimated margin
D+26.0
5th–95th interval
D+12.1 to D+40.0
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
The recent polling here measures 2 different matchups, so there is no single contest to average — the forecast rests on fundamentals (the district's 2024 result and the national environment) until the nominees are settled. Every poll is below, grouped by the matchup it tested.
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kathy Castor (D) vs Mike Beltran (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| St. Pete Polls | Jul 14–Jul 15, 2026 | 469 lv | Kathy Castor 46.2% Mike Beltran 37.5% | D+8.7 | — | Source |
| Kathy Castor (D) vs Kevin Steele (R) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set | ||||||
| St. Pete Polls | Jul 14–Jul 15, 2026 | 469 lv | Kathy Castor 46.2% Rep 38.5% | D+7.7 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.