CA-22
- Randy Villegas (Dem)
- David Valadao (Rep · incumbent)
Favors Dem
Democrats68%
Democrats are favored, winning 67,864 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Dem
Democrats68%
Democrats are favored, winning 67,862 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
D+3.9
5th–95th interval
R+10.0 to D+17.9
Estimated margin
D+3.9
5th–95th interval
R+10.0 to D+17.9
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+3.3
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David G. Valadao (R) vs Randy Villegas (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Tulchin Research dem sponsor | Jun 15–Jun 21, 2026 | 800 lv | Randy Villegas 48.0% David Valadao 44.0% | D+4.0 | — | Source |
| David G. Valadao (R) vs Jasmeet Bains (D) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling dem sponsor | Aug 6–Aug 8, 2025 | 547 rv | Dem 42.0% David Valadao 42.0% | Even | D+1.5 R+1.5 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.