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535

MI-7

  • William Lawrence (Dem)
  • Tom Barrett (Rep · incumbent)

Favors Dem

Democrats80%

Democrats are favored, winning 79,633 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats80%

Democrats are favored, winning 79,633 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+7.1

5th–95th interval

R+7.0 to D+21.0

Estimated margin

D+7.1

5th–95th interval

R+7.0 to D+21.0

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Tom Barrett (R) vs William Lawrence (D) · 2 polls
Global Strategy Group dem sponsor Aug 11–Aug 13, 2026 n/a lv William Lawrence 49.0% Tom Barrett 47.0% D+2.0 — Source
Data for Progress dem sponsor Jun 24–Jun 30, 2026 772 lv William Lawrence 48.0% Tom Barrett 46.0% D+2.0 — Source
Bridget Brink (D) vs Tom Barrett (R) · 3 polls Polled before the field was set
Data for Progress dem sponsor Jun 24–Jun 30, 2026 772 lv Tom Barrett 46.0% Dem 45.0% R+1.0 — Source
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Apr 24–Apr 25, 2026 519 rv Dem 46.0% Tom Barrett 45.0% D+1.0 D+2.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source
Public Policy Polling Oct 27–Oct 28, 2025 557 rv Dem 45.0% Tom Barrett 41.0% D+4.0 D+5.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source
Matt Maasdam (D) vs Tom Barrett (R) · 3 polls Polled before the field was set
Data for Progress dem sponsor Jun 24–Jun 30, 2026 772 lv Tom Barrett 47.0% Dem 46.0% R+1.0 — Source
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Apr 24–Apr 25, 2026 519 rv Dem 45.0% Tom Barrett 44.0% D+1.0 D+2.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source
Public Policy Polling Oct 27–Oct 28, 2025 557 rv Dem 43.0% Tom Barrett 39.0% D+4.0 D+5.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction MI-7 Aug 20, 2026

New Michigan 7th poll shows a close race, and our forecast does not move

A Global Strategy Group survey has the Democrat at 49 percent and the Republican at 47; our model still gives the Democrat a 71 percent chance.

One new poll has landed in Michigan's 7th District. A Global Strategy Group survey of 500 likely voters, fielded August 11-13, put the Democrat at 49 percent and the Republican at 47 percent. A two-point gap on a sample that size is close, and the poll does not establish who is ahead.

Our...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5