MI-10
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 62 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT
Rating
Tossup
Win probability
D 62%
Estimated margin
D+3.0
5th–95th interval
R+14.2 to D+20.1
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Bouchard Jr. (R) vs Tim Greimel (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling | Jan 16–Jan 17, 2026 | 592 rv | Rep 44.0% Dem 42.0% | R+2.0 | R+1.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Eric Chung (D) vs Mike Bouchard Jr. (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling | Jan 16–Jan 17, 2026 | 592 rv | Rep 43.0% Dem 41.0% | R+2.0 | R+1.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Christina Hines (D) vs Mike Bouchard Jr. (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling | Jan 16–Jan 17, 2026 | 592 rv | Dem 44.0% Rep 42.0% | D+2.0 | D+2.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.