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535

MI-10

  • Christina Hines (Dem)
  • Michael Bouchard Jr. (Rep)
  • Mike Bouchard Jr. (Rep)

Favors Dem

Democrats71%

Democrats are favored, winning 70,787 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats70%

Democrats are favored, winning 70,481 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+4.7

5th–95th interval

R+9.4 to D+18.7

Estimated margin

D+4.6

5th–95th interval

R+9.5 to D+18.6

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+0.8

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Christina Hines (D) vs Mike Bouchard (R) · 2 polls
Global Strategy Group dem sponsor Aug 10–Aug 13, 2026 600 lv Michael Bouchard Jr. 45.0% Christina Hines 45.0% Even — Source
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Jan 16–Jan 17, 2026 592 rv Christina Hines 44.0% Michael Bouchard Jr. 42.0% D+2.0 D+3.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source
Mike Bouchard (R) vs Tim Greimel (D) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Jan 16–Jan 17, 2026 592 rv Michael Bouchard Jr. 44.0% Dem 42.0% R+2.0 R+0.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source
Eric Chung (D) vs Mike Bouchard (R) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Jan 16–Jan 17, 2026 592 rv Michael Bouchard Jr. 43.0% Dem 41.0% R+2.0 R+0.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction MI-10 Aug 31, 2026

New MI-10 poll shows a tie, and our forecast barely moves

Global Strategy Group finds Bouchard and Hines level at 45 apiece; our model still gives the Democrat a modest edge in the open Michigan seat.

A Global Strategy Group survey of 600 likely voters in Michigan's 10th District, fielded August 10-13, put Republican Michael Bouchard Jr. and Democrat Christina Hines at 45 percent each.

Our forecast now gives Hines a 61 in 100 chance of winning the seat, with a mean margin of D+2.7. That is a...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5