MO-2

Fred Wellman (Dem)
Ann Wagner (Rep · incumbent)

Tossup

Republicans56%

This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 55,873 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Tossup

Republicans56%

This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 55,873 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+1.2

5th–95th interval

R+15.1 to D+12.7

Estimated margin

R+1.2

5th–95th interval

R+15.1 to D+12.7

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+1.0 current average: R+1.0

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Remington	Sep 14–Sep 15, 2026	565 lv	Ann Wagner 43.0% Fred Wellman 42.0%	R+1.0	—	Source
FM3 Research dem sponsor	May 26–May 31, 2026	600 lv	Ann Wagner 44.0% Fred Wellman 41.0%	R+3.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction MO-2 Sep 25, 2026

Remington poll shows a close MO-2 race and leaves our forecast where it was

A one-point Wagner edge in a new survey matches our model's view of a near-even contest in Missouri's 2nd District, 39 days before the election.

A Remington survey of 565 likely voters in Missouri's 2nd District, fielded September 14-15, found Republican incumbent Ann Wagner at 43% and Democrat Fred Wellman at 42%. A one-point gap in a sample that size is well within the range of ordinary polling error. The poll describes a close race,...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5