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535

ME-2

  • Matthew Dunlap (Dem)
  • Paul LePage (Rep)

Favors Dem

Democrats89%

Democrats are favored, winning 88,898 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats84%

Democrats are favored, winning 84,222 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+10.4

5th–95th interval

R+3.6 to D+24.5

Estimated margin

D+8.5

5th–95th interval

R+5.5 to D+22.6

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+6.0 current average: D+3.4

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Matt Dunlap (D) vs Paul LePage (R) · 7 polls
Tulchin Research dem sponsor Sep 27–Sep 30, 2026 500 lv Matthew Dunlap 50.0% Paul LePage 48.0% D+2.0 — Source
University of New Hampshire Sep 17–Sep 21, 2026 622 lv Matthew Dunlap 51.0% Paul LePage 45.0% D+6.0 — Source
Impact Research dem sponsor Sep 8–Sep 12, 2026 500 lv Paul LePage 49.0% Matthew Dunlap 49.0% Even — Source
DCCC Targeting Team dem sponsor Aug 11–Aug 13, 2026 621 lv Paul LePage 49.0% Matthew Dunlap 48.0% R+1.0 — Source
Tulchin Research dem sponsor Jul 11–Jul 16, 2026 600 lv Matthew Dunlap 49.0% Paul LePage 48.0% D+1.0 — Source
co/efficient rep sponsor Apr 26–Apr 28, 2026 918 lv Paul LePage 50.0% Matthew Dunlap 40.0% R+10.0 R+7.7 R+2.3 lean removed Source
University of New Hampshire Feb 12–Feb 16, 2026 520 lv Paul LePage 47.0% Matthew Dunlap 46.0% R+1.0 — Source
Joe Baldacci (D) vs Paul R. LePage (R) · 4 polls Polled before the field was set
Pan Atlantic SMS Group dem sponsor May 8–May 18, 2026 418 lv Dem 49.0% Paul LePage 41.0% D+8.0 — Source
co/efficient rep sponsor Apr 26–Apr 28, 2026 918 lv Paul LePage 50.0% Dem 40.0% R+10.0 R+7.7 R+2.3 lean removed Source
University of New Hampshire Feb 12–Feb 16, 2026 520 lv Paul LePage 48.0% Dem 47.0% R+1.0 — Source
Pan Atlantic SMS Group dem sponsor Nov 29–Dec 7, 2025 387 lv Paul LePage 44.0% Dem 43.0% R+1.0 — Source
Jordan Wood (D) vs Paul R. LePage (R) · 2 polls Polled before the field was set
Upswing Research dem sponsor Feb 24–Feb 27, 2026 403 lv Paul LePage 52.0% Dem 45.0% R+7.0 — Source
University of New Hampshire Feb 12–Feb 16, 2026 520 lv Paul LePage 48.0% Dem 44.0% R+4.0 — Source
Jared Forrest Golden (D) vs Paul R. LePage (R) · 4 polls Polled before the field was set
University of New Hampshire Oct 16–Oct 21, 2025 521 lv Paul LePage 49.0% Dem 44.0% R+5.0 — Source
University of New Hampshire Jun 19–Jun 23, 2025 394 a Paul LePage 50.0% Dem 47.0% R+3.0 — Source
Mellman Group dem sponsor Jun 4–Jun 10, 2025 400 lv Dem 44.0% Paul LePage 43.0% D+1.0 — Source
Ragnar Research Partners rep sponsor Apr 13–Apr 15, 2025 400 lv Paul LePage 48.0% Dem 43.0% R+5.0 — Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction ME-2 Oct 2, 2026

Tulchin poll finds a two-point race in ME-2; our forecast barely moves

Dunlap's chance slips one point to 88% while our projected margin holds at D+10.3, well wider than the new survey's gap.

A Tulchin Research survey of 500 likely voters in Maine's 2nd District, fielded September 27-30, puts Democrat Matthew Dunlap at 50% and Republican Paul LePage at 48%. A two-point gap in a sample that size is a close race, not a lead.

The poll moved our forecast only slightly. Our model now...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction ME-2 Sep 24, 2026

UNH poll puts Dunlap up six in ME-2; our forecast eases to 87 in 100

The nonpartisan survey is wider than the recent partisan numbers in this district, but our model still trimmed the projected Democratic margin to about 10 points.

A University of New Hampshire survey of 622 likely voters in Maine's 2nd District, fielded September 17-21, has Democrat Matthew Dunlap at 51 percent and Republican Paul LePage at 45 percent.

Our model now gives Dunlap an 87 in 100 chance of winning the seat, with a mean margin of D+9.9 and a...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction ME-2 Sep 22, 2026

ME-2 forecast steady at 89 in 100 as DCCC poll shows a one-point gap

The internal survey puts Paul LePage a point ahead of Matthew Dunlap, while our model still expects a double-digit Democratic margin.

One new poll is in the ME-2 file. The DCCC Targeting Team surveyed 621 likely voters August 11-13 and found Paul LePage at 49 percent and Matthew Dunlap at 48 percent. That is a one-point gap in a survey of that size, which is to say the race is close in that poll rather than that either...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction ME-2 Sep 15, 2026

Partisan poll in ME-2 shows a tie; our forecast does not move

An Impact Research survey for House Majority PAC has Paul LePage and Matthew Dunlap level at 49, while our model still gives Dunlap an 86 percent chance.

A new poll of Maine's 2nd District has the race even. Impact Research, polling for House Majority PAC, surveyed 500 likely voters September 8-12 and found Republican Paul LePage at 49 percent and Democrat Matthew Dunlap at 49 percent.

Our forecast did not change. As of 4:02 PM ET on September...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5