TX-35

Johnny Garcia (Dem)
Carlos De La Cruz (Rep)

Favors Dem

Democrats100%

Democrats are favored, winning 100,000 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats100%

Democrats are favored, winning 100,000 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+45.5

5th–95th interval

D+31.5 to D+59.5

Estimated margin

D+44.3

5th–95th interval

D+30.3 to D+58.3

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+1.8

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Normington, Petts & Associates dem sponsor	Aug 27–Aug 31, 2026	n/a lv	Carlos De La Cruz 45.0% Johnny Garcia 44.0%	R+1.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction TX-35 Sep 2, 2026

Lone TX-35 poll shows a close race; our model still has Garcia far ahead

A House Majority PAC-sponsored survey has De La Cruz at 45 and Garcia at 44, but our forecast moved by a tenth of a point.

A survey by Normington, Petts & Associates for House Majority PAC, fielded August 27-31 among likely voters, put Republican Carlos De La Cruz at 45 percent and Democrat Johnny Garcia at 44 percent in Texas's 35th District. No sample size or margin of error accompanies the numbers in our data, and...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5