OH-10
- Kristina Knickerbocker (Dem)
- Mike Turner (Rep · incumbent)
- Thomas McMasters (Other)
Favors Rep
Republicans82%
Republicans are favored, winning 81,537 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans82%
Republicans are favored, winning 81,511 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+7.7
5th–95th interval
R+21.7 to D+6.3
Estimated margin
R+7.7
5th–95th interval
R+21.7 to D+6.3
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+6.4
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristina Knickerbocker (D) vs Mike Turner (R) vs Thomas McMasters (LIB) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Global Strategy Group dem sponsor | Jul 20–Jul 23, 2026 | 700 lv | Mike Turner 45.0% Kristina Knickerbocker 40.0% Other 4.0% | R+5.0 | — | Source |
| Kristina Knickerbocker (D) vs Mike Turner (R) · 2 polls | ||||||
| Global Strategy Group dem sponsor | Jul 20–Jul 23, 2026 | 700 lv | Mike Turner 49.0% Kristina Knickerbocker 42.0% | R+7.0 | — | Source |
| FM3 Research dem sponsor | Jul 6–Jul 12, 2026 | n/a lv | Mike Turner 48.0% Kristina Knickerbocker 41.0% | R+7.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.