NH-2

Maggie Goodlander (Dem · incumbent)
Lily Tang Williams (Rep)

Favors Dem

Democrats98%

Democrats are favored, winning 98,047 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats98%

Democrats are favored, winning 98,047 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+17.5

5th–95th interval

D+3.5 to D+31.4

Estimated margin

D+17.5

5th–95th interval

D+3.5 to D+31.4

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+20.1 current average: D+20.1

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Lily Tang Williams (R) vs Maggie Goodlander (D) vs Robbie Mahrou (I) · 1 poll
University of New Hampshire	Sep 17–Sep 21, 2026	694 lv	Maggie Goodlander 56.0% Lily Tang Williams 35.0% Ind 3.0%	D+21.0	—	Source
Lily Tang Williams (R) vs Maggie Goodlander (D) · 7 polls
St. Anselm	Aug 17–Aug 18, 2026	701 lv	Dem 50.0% Rep 35.0%	D+15.0	—	Source
St. Anselm	Jun 24–Jun 25, 2026	802 rv	Dem 50.0% Rep 31.0%	D+19.0	—	Source
St. Anselm	Mar 16–Mar 18, 2026	739 rv	Dem 48.0% Rep 36.0%	D+12.0	—	Source
University of New Hampshire	Jan 15–Jan 19, 2026	1,094 lv	Dem 54.0% Rep 40.0%	D+14.0	—	Source
St. Anselm	Nov 18–Nov 19, 2025	1,102 rv	Dem 40.0% Rep 35.0%	D+5.0	—	Source
University of New Hampshire	Sep 17–Sep 23, 2025	508 lv	Dem 51.0% Rep 39.0%	D+12.0	—	Source
St. Anselm	Aug 26–Aug 27, 2025	881 rv	Dem 49.0% Rep 31.0%	D+18.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction NH-2 Sep 24, 2026

UNH poll puts Goodlander up 21 in NH-2, nudging our margin higher

Our model now gives the Democrat a 98 in 100 chance in New Hampshire's 2nd District, up a point from the previous run.

A University of New Hampshire survey of 694 likely voters, fielded September 17-21, has Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander at 56 percent and Republican Lily Tang Williams at 35 percent in New Hampshire's 2nd District, with an independent candidate at 3 percent.

That is a wider margin than our...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction NH-2 Aug 31, 2026

Second St. Anselm poll in NH-2 leaves our numbers where they were

A March survey added to our average shows a smaller Democratic edge than the August one, and our estimate of the district margin moved by three-tenths of a point.

Two St. Anselm surveys of New Hampshire's 2nd District now sit in our average. The more recent, fielded August 17-18 among 701 likely voters, had the Democrat at 50 percent and the Republican at 35. The older one, fielded March 16-18 among 739 registered voters, had the Democrat at 48 and the...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction NH-2 Aug 20, 2026

New Hampshire's 2nd District poll lands where our forecast already sat

A Saint Anselm College survey shows the Democrat up 15 points, and our model still gives the Democrat a 93 percent chance.

A Saint Anselm College survey of 701 likely voters in New Hampshire's 2nd District, fielded August 17-18, put the Democrat at 50 percent and the Republican at 35 percent.

That is close to what our model was already carrying. Our forecast gives the Democrat a 93 in 100 chance in the district,...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5