Senate
35 of the Senate's 100 seats are on the 2026 ballot. The other 65 are holdovers who don't face voters this year, and the forecast counts them toward control.
as of Aug 19, 2026, 6:30 PM EDT
Senate
Republicans favored to control — 51 in 100 simulations.
51 = majority
49% Dem control 51% Rep control mean 50.2 Dem-caucus seats Dem-caucus seats per simulated world; dashed line = majority.
35 of 35 races
| Race ▲ | Rating | Win prob. | Margin | Trend | Lean | Polls | Last poll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Senate | Favors Rep | R 68% | R+3.1 | R+13.1 | 18 | Aug 5, 2026 | |
| Alabama Senate | Favors Rep | R 100% | R+22.3 | R+29.5 | 1 | Jul 11, 2026 | |
| Arkansas Senate | Favors Rep | R 100% | R+19.8 | R+30.6 | 3 | Aug 18, 2026 | |
| Colorado Senate | Favors Dem | D 95% | D+19.0 | D+10.8 | 0 | — | |
| Delaware Senate | Favors Dem | D 98% | D+23.7 | D+15.3 | 0 | — | |
| Florida Senate special | Tossup | R 64% | R+4.3 | R+9.7 | 21 | Jul 17, 2026 | |
| Georgia Senate | Favors Dem | D 85% | D+7.0 | R+2.5 | 12 | Aug 17, 2026 | |
| Iowa Senate | Favors Rep | R 75% | R+4.6 | R+12.2 | 9 | Aug 4, 2026 | |
| Idaho Senate | Favors Rep | R 100% | R+23.3 | R+35.1 | 10 | Aug 13, 2026 | |
| Illinois Senate | Favors Dem | D 95% | D+19.5 | D+12.5 | 0 | — | |
| Kansas Senate | Favors Rep | R 92% | R+9.2 | R+16.9 | 4 | Aug 8, 2026 | |
| Kentucky Senate | Favors Rep | R 97% | R+23.1 | R+29.7 | 1 | Dec 19, 2025 | |
| Louisiana Senate | Favors Rep | R 98% | R+14.2 | R+21.8 | 1 | Jul 22, 2026 | |
| Massachusetts Senate | Favors Dem | D 100% | D+31.3 | D+27.8 | 8 | Aug 12, 2026 | |
| Maine Senate | Favors Dem | D 78% | D+5.3 | D+6.5 | 6 | Aug 10, 2026 | |
| Michigan Senate | Tossup | D 58% | D+1.4 | R+0.8 | 26 | Aug 17, 2026 | |
| Minnesota Senate | Favors Dem | D 91% | D+9.0 | D+4.2 | 6 | Aug 17, 2026 | |
| Mississippi Senate | Favors Rep | R 91% | R+16.0 | R+21.2 | 3 | Apr 12, 2026 | |
| Montana Senate | Favors Rep | R 98% | R+13.4 | R+19.7 | 24 | Aug 4, 2026 | |
| North Carolina Senate | Favors Dem | D 90% | D+8.7 | R+3.8 | 30 | Aug 10, 2026 | |
| Nebraska Senate | Favors Rep | R 99% | R+16.0 | R+21.3 | 7 | May 11, 2026 | |
| New Hampshire Senate | Favors Dem | D 94% | D+10.4 | D+3.6 | 13 | Jun 25, 2026 | |
| New Jersey Senate | Favors Dem | D 93% | D+17.7 | D+9.4 | 0 | — | |
| New Mexico Senate | Favors Dem | D 89% | D+14.9 | D+6.9 | 0 | — | |
| Ohio Senate special | Tossup | D 63% | D+2.3 | R+11.1 | 18 | Aug 13, 2026 | |
| Oklahoma Senate | Favors Rep | R 99% | R+28.4 | R+35.2 | 0 | — | |
| Oregon Senate | Favors Dem | D 97% | D+21.8 | D+13.7 | 0 | — | |
| Rhode Island Senate | Favors Dem | D 100% | D+23.9 | D+15.8 | 2 | Jun 23, 2026 | |
| South Carolina Senate | Favors Rep | R 83% | R+11.1 | R+16.3 | 10 | Jul 17, 2026 | |
| South Dakota Senate | Favors Rep | R 100% | R+23.7 | R+29.2 | 9 | Jul 9, 2026 | |
| Tennessee Senate | Favors Rep | R 97% | R+22.6 | R+28.0 | 0 | — | |
| Texas Senate | Tossup | D 59% | D+1.6 | R+11.1 | 25 | Aug 10, 2026 | |
| Virginia Senate | Favors Dem | D 99% | D+14.9 | D+6.5 | 2 | Jun 16, 2026 | |
| West Virginia Senate | Favors Rep | R 100% | R+36.6 | R+41.9 | 0 | — | |
| Wyoming Senate | Favors Rep | R 100% | R+39.4 | R+46.1 | 0 | — |