OH-1

Greg Landsman (Dem · incumbent)
Eric Conroy (Rep)
Nathan Weise (Other)

Favors Dem

Democrats99%

Democrats are favored, winning 98,855 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats99%

Democrats are favored, winning 98,855 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+19.3

5th–95th interval

D+5.3 to D+33.3

Estimated margin

D+19.3

5th–95th interval

D+5.3 to D+33.3

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+4.4 current average: D+4.4

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Quantus Insights	Aug 21–Aug 24, 2026	509 lv	Greg Landsman 47.9% Eric Conroy 44.6%	D+3.3	D+4.4 R+1.1 lean removed	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction OH-1 Aug 31, 2026

New Quantus poll in OH-1 leaves our forecast essentially where it was

The survey has Landsman and Conroy within a few points, while our model still projects a double-digit Democratic margin.

A Quantus Insights survey of 509 likely voters in Ohio's 1st District, fielded August 21-24, puts Democratic incumbent Greg Landsman at 47.9 percent and Republican Eric Conroy at 44.6 percent. The gap is small enough on that sample size that the poll describes a close race rather than a clear...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction OH-1 Aug 26, 2026

Forecast in OH-1 barely moves after two Quantus polls

Our model still gives Greg Landsman a 93 percent chance in the Cincinnati-area district, with the mean margin shaved from D+14.8 to D+14.4.

Two Quantus Insights surveys of 509 likely voters in Ohio's 1st District, both fielded August 21-24, show a close race. One has Democratic incumbent Greg Landsman at 47 percent and Republican Eric Conroy at 43. The other has Landsman at 48 and Conroy at 45.

Our model has now absorbed them, and...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction OH-1 Aug 26, 2026

Quantus polls put Landsman ahead by under four points in OH-1

Three readings from the same Quantus Insights field period trimmed our projected margin from D+18.3 to D+14.6, and our estimate of Greg Landsman's chances from 97% to 93%.

Three new Quantus Insights readings in Ohio's 1st District, all from surveys of 509 likely voters fielded August 21-24, show a close race. One has Democratic incumbent Greg Landsman at 46.5% and Republican Eric Conroy at 42.7%. A second has Landsman at 47.9% and Conroy at 44.6%. A third, with no...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5