FL-9

Darren Soto (Dem · incumbent)
Dan Green (Rep)

Favors Dem

Democrats100%

Democrats are favored, winning 99,709 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats100%

Democrats are favored, winning 99,624 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+23.2

5th–95th interval

D+9.2 to D+37.1

Estimated margin

D+22.6

5th–95th interval

D+8.7 to D+36.6

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+0.8

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
SEA Polling dem sponsor	Aug 24–Aug 30, 2026	400 lv	Dan Green 41.0% Darren Soto 41.0%	Even	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction FL-9 Sep 4, 2026

A tied poll in FL-9 leaves our forecast where it was

SEA Polling finds Darren Soto and Dan Green level at 41 percent, but our model still gives Soto a 99 in 100 chance and a mean margin of D+21.3.

One new survey in Florida's 9th District shows a close race. SEA Polling, fielded August 24-30 among 400 likely voters and published by floridapolitics.com, has Republican Dan Green and Democratic incumbent Darren Soto tied at 41 percent each.

Our forecast did not move on it. We give Soto a 99...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5