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535

MT-1

  • Sam Forstag (Dem)
  • Aaron Flint (Rep)
  • Nick Sheedy (Other)

Tossup

Democrats60%

This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 60,163 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Tossup

Democrats60%

This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 59,779 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+2.2

5th–95th interval

R+11.8 to D+16.2

Estimated margin

D+2.1

5th–95th interval

R+11.9 to D+16.1

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+0.7 current average: D+0.5

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Aaron Flint (R) vs Nick Sheedy (LIB) vs Sam Forstag (D) · 3 polls
American Pulse Research & Polling Sep 19–Sep 24, 2026 314 lv Aaron Flint 45.9% Sam Forstag 45.4% Nick Sheedy 5.4% R+0.5 — Source
Impact Research dem sponsor Sep 20–Sep 23, 2026 500 lv Sam Forstag 47.0% Aaron Flint 44.0% Nick Sheedy 2.0% D+3.0 — Source
Rutgers-Eagleton Aug 27–Sep 7, 2026 375 rv Aaron Flint 42.0% Sam Forstag 41.0% Other 5.0% R+1.0 — Source
Aaron Flint (R) vs Sam Forstag (D) · 2 polls
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Sep 9–Sep 10, 2026 536 rv Sam Forstag 45.0% Aaron Flint 43.0% D+2.0 D+3.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source
Upswing Research dem sponsor Apr 30–May 5, 2026 401 lv Aaron Flint 48.0% Sam Forstag 43.0% R+5.0 — Source
Sam Forstag (D) vs Tim Sheehy (R) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
Impact Research dem sponsor Jun 22–Jun 25, 2026 500 lv Sam Forstag 44.0% Rep 5.0% D+39.0 — Source
Aaron Flint (R) vs Matt Rains (D) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
Upswing Research dem sponsor Apr 30–May 5, 2026 401 lv Aaron Flint 47.0% Dem 43.0% R+4.0 — Source
Ryan Busse (D) vs Ryan K. Zinke (R) · 2 polls Polled before the field was set
Peak Insights rep sponsor Jan 12–Jan 15, 2026 400 lv Rep 47.0% Dem 41.0% R+6.0 — Source
Tulchin Research dem sponsor Nov 22–Nov 25, 2025 424 lv Dem 47.0% Rep 43.0% D+4.0 — Source
Ryan K. Zinke (R) vs Sam Forstag (D) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
Peak Insights rep sponsor Jan 12–Jan 15, 2026 400 lv Rep 48.0% Sam Forstag 38.0% R+10.0 — Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction MT-1 Sep 30, 2026

Impact Research poll of MT-1 leaves our forecast where it was

A three-point gap between Forstag and Flint matches what our model already expected, and the Democrat's chance holds at 60%.

An Impact Research survey of 500 likely voters in Montana's 1st District, fielded September 20-23, found Democrat Sam Forstag at 47 percent and Republican Aaron Flint at 44 percent. Nick Sheedy, running outside the two major parties, drew 2 percent. With a sample that size, the race reads as...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction MT-1 Sep 28, 2026

MT-1 poll finds Flint and Forstag within a point; Democrat's chance eases to 59%

A 314-voter survey with Republican Aaron Flint half a point ahead moves our average margin to D+2.0, from D+2.8 an hour earlier.

A new poll of Montana's 1st District shows a race too close to separate. The American Pulse Research & Polling survey, sponsored by NonStop Local and fielded September 19-24 among 314 likely voters, puts Republican Aaron Flint at 45.9% and Democrat Sam Forstag at 45.4%. Nick Sheedy, running...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction MT-1 Sep 16, 2026

New MT-1 poll shows a close race; our forecast nudges to 57 in 100

Public Policy Polling puts Sam Forstag two points ahead of Aaron Flint, and our model's mean margin moves from D+1.3 to D+1.6.

A Public Policy Polling survey of 536 registered voters in Montana's 1st District, sponsored by The Bench and fielded September 9-10, put Democrat Sam Forstag at 45 percent and Republican Aaron Flint at 43 percent. A two-point gap on a sample that size does not establish a leader. The poll...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction MT-1 Sep 15, 2026

A tied MT-1 poll trims the Democrat's edge in our forecast

Rutgers-Eagleton finds Aaron Flint at 42 and Sam Forstag at 41 in Montana's 1st District; our model now gives Forstag a 55 percent chance.

A Rutgers-Eagleton survey of 375 registered voters in Montana's 1st District, sponsored by Montana Free Press and fielded August 27 to September 7, found Republican Aaron Flint at 42 percent and Democrat Sam Forstag at 41 percent, with 5 percent for other candidates. On a sample that small, a...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5