FL-5
- Rachel Grage (Dem)
- John Rutherford (Rep · incumbent)
Favors Rep
Republicans97%
Republicans are favored, winning 96,557 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans97%
Republicans are favored, winning 96,557 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+15.4
5th–95th interval
R+29.4 to R+1.5
Estimated margin
R+15.4
5th–95th interval
R+29.4 to R+1.5
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.