IA-1
Democrats are favored, winning in 80 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 80%
Estimated margin
D+8.8
5th–95th interval
R+7.8 to D+26.0
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+5.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christina Bohannan (D) vs Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) vs Michael Bridgford (I) · 1 poll | ||||||
| The Bullfinch Group/Independent Center | Jul 13–Jul 16, 2026 | 705 lv | Dem 40.0% Rep 35.0% Ind 11.0% | D+5.0 | — | Source |
| Christina Bohannan (D) vs Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling | Jun 18–Jun 19, 2025 | 555 unknown | Dem 43.0% Rep 39.0% | D+4.0 | D+4.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.