IA-1
- Christina Bohannan (Dem)
- Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Rep · incumbent)
- Michael Bridgford (Ind)
Favors Dem
Democrats89%
Democrats are favored, winning 89,158 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Dem
Democrats89%
Democrats are favored, winning 89,158 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
D+10.5
5th–95th interval
R+3.5 to D+24.5
Estimated margin
D+10.5
5th–95th interval
R+3.5 to D+24.5
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+3.9 current average: D+3.9
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christina Bohannan (D) vs Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) vs Michael Bridgford (I) · 1 poll | ||||||
| The Bullfinch Group | Jul 13–Jul 16, 2026 | 705 lv | Christina Bohannan 40.0% Mariannette Miller-Meeks 35.0% Michael Bridgford 11.0% | D+5.0 | D+3.9 D+1.1 lean removed | Source |
| Christina Bohannan (D) vs Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling dem sponsor | Jun 18–Jun 19, 2025 | 555 rv | Christina Bohannan 43.0% Mariannette Miller-Meeks 39.0% | D+4.0 | D+5.5 R+1.5 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.