CA-3
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 57 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT
Rating
Tossup
Win probability
R 57%
Estimated margin
R+1.8
5th–95th interval
R+18.9 to D+15.1
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research | Jul 8–Jul 10, 2025 | 400 lv | Rep 47.0% Dem 45.0% | R+2.0 | R+2.0 Even lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.