CA-3
- Ami Bera (Dem · incumbent)
- Robb Tucker (Rep)
Tossup
Republicans51%
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 51,179 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Tossup
Republicans51%
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 51,179 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+0.2
5th–95th interval
R+14.1 to D+13.8
Estimated margin
R+0.2
5th–95th interval
R+14.1 to D+13.8
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research dem sponsor | Jul 8–Jul 10, 2025 | 400 lv | Rep 47.0% Dem 45.0% | R+2.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.