Pollsters
Every polling firm in this corpus, and how far its polls sit from everyone else's.
as of Oct 4, 2026, 12:30 AM EDT
How to read this
D+0.8 means this pollster's polls run 0.8 points more Democratic than the field; we subtract that before averaging. R+0.8 means the same in the other direction. The effect is measured against the other firms polling the same thing at the same time — never against the election result, which hasn't happened — so it says a firm differs from its competitors, not that it is wrong.
Raw is the firm's average gap from the field. Applied is that number pulled toward zero by how much evidence stands behind it — a firm with three polls keeps 38% of its raw effect, one with thirty keeps 86% — and then capped at 3.0 points. Firms under 3 usable polls are shown but not adjusted for. The full method is on the methodology page.
170 pollsters · 94 with an estimated effect · 49 whose effect is being applied
| Pollster | Polls | Usable | Raw effect | Applied effect | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HarrisX/Harris Poll | 16 | 8 | R+5.0 | R+3.0 | Applied |
| AtlasIntel | 5 | 5 | D+8.7 | D+3.0 | Applied |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 33 | 20 | R+3.5 | R+2.8 | Applied |
| RMG Research | 22 | 20 | R+3.0 | R+2.4 | Applied |
| co/efficient | 28 | 8 | R+3.8 | R+2.3 | Applied |
| Marist University | 8 | 8 | D+3.5 | D+2.2 | Applied |
| Morning Consult | 124 | 122 | R+2.2 | R+2.1 | Applied |
| Survey 160 | 5 | 5 | D+4.1 | D+2.1 | Applied |
| Quinnipiac University | 8 | 8 | D+3.3 | D+2.0 | Applied |
| Harper Polling | 11 | 4 | D+3.8 | D+1.7 | Applied |
| Angus Reid Global | 3 | 2 | D+5.5 | D+1.6 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| HarrisX | 7 | 3 | R+4.1 | R+1.5 | Applied |
| Public Policy Polling | 87 | 3 | R+4.0 | R+1.5 | Applied |
| Verasight | 27 | 16 | D+1.9 | D+1.5 | Applied |
| Big Data Poll | 32 | 20 | D+1.8 | D+1.4 | Applied |
| Ipsos | 60 | 42 | R+1.6 | R+1.4 | Applied |
| Marquette University Law School | 17 | 6 | R+2.4 | R+1.3 | Applied |
| Slingshot Strategies | 6 | 3 | D+3.4 | D+1.3 | Applied |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | 3 | 1 | R+7.4 | R+1.2 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| J.L. Partners | 7 | 5 | D+2.4 | D+1.2 | Applied |
| Quantus Insights | 52 | 27 | R+1.3 | R+1.1 | Applied |
| ActiVote | 5 | 5 | R+2.2 | R+1.1 | Applied |
| The Bullfinch Group | 25 | 6 | D+2.0 | D+1.1 | Applied |
| Yale University Institution for Social and Policy Studies | 3 | 3 | R+2.7 | R+1.0 | Applied |
| St. Pete Polls | 3 | 1 | D+6.0 | D+1.0 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| TIPP Insights | 20 | 3 | R+2.4 | R+0.9 | Applied |
| InsiderAdvantage | 14 | 11 | R+1.2 | R+0.9 | Applied |
| Fabrizio Ward/ Impact Research | 13 | 5 | D+1.7 | D+0.9 | Applied |
| Bedrock Polling | 4 | 3 | R+2.2 | R+0.8 | Applied |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | 21 | 12 | D+1.2 | D+0.8 | Applied |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 5 | 2 | R+2.8 | R+0.8 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| KFF | 2 | 2 | D+2.8 | D+0.8 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Abacus Data | 10 | 3 | D+2.1 | D+0.8 | Applied |
| Tavern Research | 24 | 1 | R+4.5 | R+0.8 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| GBAO | 23 | 3 | D+2.0 | D+0.7 | Applied |
| Emerson College | 51 | 22 | D+0.9 | D+0.7 | Applied |
| Talker Research | 2 | 2 | D+2.4 | D+0.7 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| OnMessage Inc. | 3 | 1 | D+4.1 | D+0.7 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| ReconMR/Siena Research Institute/Texas A&M Bush School | 1 | 1 | D+3.9 | D+0.6 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 5 | 5 | R+1.3 | R+0.6 | Applied |
| The Honest Poll | 5 | 2 | D+2.1 | D+0.6 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| AlphaROC | 4 | 4 | R+1.3 | R+0.6 | Applied |
| High Point University | 7 | 4 | R+1.2 | R+0.6 | Applied |
| TrueDot | 1 | 1 | D+3.1 | D+0.5 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 14 | 14 | D+0.7 | D+0.5 | Applied |
| University of New Hampshire | 45 | 1 | D+3.1 | D+0.5 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| NewsNation | 2 | 1 | R+3.0 | R+0.5 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Hart Research Associates/ Public Opinion Strategies | 11 | 11 | R+0.7 | R+0.5 | Applied |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | 2 | 1 | D+3.0 | D+0.5 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Overton Insights | 1 | 1 | R+2.9 | R+0.5 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| SoCal Strategies | 5 | 1 | D+2.9 | D+0.5 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Change Research | 38 | 13 | D+0.6 | D+0.5 | Applied |
| Manhattan Institute | 2 | 2 | R+1.6 | R+0.5 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Echelon Insights | 33 | 25 | R+0.5 | R+0.4 | Applied |
| American Pulse Research & Polling | 7 | 1 | D+2.5 | D+0.4 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Data for Progress | 17 | 2 | D+1.4 | D+0.4 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| CNN/SSRS | 10 | 8 | D+0.7 | D+0.4 | Applied |
| Global Strategy Group | 20 | 1 | D+2.4 | D+0.4 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| A2 Insights | 2 | 2 | D+1.4 | D+0.4 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Pennsylvania State University McCourtney Institute for Democracy/YouGov | 2 | 2 | R+1.3 | R+0.4 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov | 8 | 3 | D+1.0 | D+0.4 | Applied |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov | 4 | 3 | D+1.0 | D+0.4 | Applied |
| Fabrizio Ward | 2 | 1 | R+2.0 | R+0.3 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| National Association of Independent Pollsters | 1 | 1 | R+1.8 | R+0.3 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Suffolk University | 7 | 3 | R+0.8 | R+0.3 | Applied |
| Siena University | 2 | 1 | D+1.6 | D+0.3 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 16 | 2 | R+0.9 | R+0.3 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Marquette Law School | 3 | 1 | D+1.4 | D+0.2 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | 1 | 1 | R+1.3 | R+0.2 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| YouGov | 183 | 99 | D+0.2 | D+0.2 | Applied |
| RealClear Opinion Research | 1 | 1 | R+1.3 | R+0.2 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Impact Research | 31 | 1 | R+1.2 | R+0.2 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Opinion Diagnostics | 3 | 2 | R+0.7 | R+0.2 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Cygnal/Beacon Research | 1 | 1 | D+1.1 | D+0.2 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Wick | 3 | 1 | D+1.1 | D+0.2 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 9 | 2 | R+0.6 | R+0.2 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Cygnal Political | 34 | 22 | R+0.2 | R+0.1 | Applied |
| Zogby Analytics | 1 | 1 | R+0.8 | R+0.1 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| John Zogby Strategies | 6 | 6 | R+0.2 | R+0.1 | Applied |
| Impact Research/ National Research Inc. | 4 | 3 | D+0.3 | D+0.1 | Applied |
| SurveyUSA | 9 | 2 | D+0.4 | D+0.1 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | 1 | 1 | D+0.6 | D+0.1 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Wave Polling and Research/Verasight | 1 | 1 | D+0.6 | D+0.1 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| YouGov Blue | 1 | 1 | D+0.6 | D+0.1 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Cygnal | 1 | 1 | D+0.4 | D+0.1 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 2 | 2 | D+0.2 | D+0.1 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Wedgewood Polls | 13 | 5 | D+0.1 | D+0.1 | Applied |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 25 | 13 | R+0.1 | Even | Applied |
| Pew Research Center | 1 | 1 | D+0.2 | Even | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Focaldata | 21 | 9 | Even | Even | Applied |
| Research Co. | 2 | 2 | D+0.1 | Even | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Echelon Insights/GBAO | 1 | 1 | R+0.1 | Even | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| The Argument/Verasight | 13 | 12 | Even | Even | Applied |
| PRRI | 1 | 1 | D+0.1 | Even | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Alaska Survey Research | 17 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | 15 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| GQR | 15 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Hart Research Associates | 15 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Ragnar Research Partners | 15 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| St. Anselm | 15 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Trafalgar Group | 15 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Tulchin Research | 14 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School of Public Affairs | 12 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 11 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Zenith Research | 8 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Pan Atlantic SMS Group | 7 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Peak Insights | 7 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| The Winston Group | 7 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| DCCC Targeting Team | 6 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs | 6 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research | 6 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| WPA Intelligence | 6 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| EPIC-MRA | 5 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 5 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| FM3 Research | 5 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| GrayHouse | 5 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Lake Research Partners | 5 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Praecones Analytica | 5 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| University of North Florida | 5 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Blueprint Polling | 4 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Kaplan Strategies | 4 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Lighthouse Research | 4 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Maine People's Resource Center | 4 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov | 4 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Patriot Polling | 4 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| The Tyson Group | 4 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| University of Georgia | 4 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Upswing Research | 4 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| 2040 Strategy Group | 3 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Expedition Strategies | 3 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| MDW Communications | 3 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Pulse Decision Science | 3 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Rosetta Stone | 3 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Rutgers-Eagleton | 3 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Target Insyght | 3 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | 3 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Victory Insights | 3 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| yes. every kid. foundation. | 3 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Z to A Research | 3 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Beacon Insights | 2 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Braun Research | 2 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Cole Hargrave | 2 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Franklin & Marshall College | 2 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy | 2 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Hendrix College | 2 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Middle Seat | 2 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| SEA Polling | 2 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Workbench Strategy | 2 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| 1892 Polling | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| 20/20 Insight | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Applecart | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Aspect Strategic | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Bendixen & Amandi International | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Cherry Communications | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| DHM Research | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| EMC Research | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| i360 | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Keating Research, Inc. | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Mellman Group | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Miller Consulting Services | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Remington | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Responsive Management | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| StimSight Research | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Strategies 360 | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Stratus Intelligence | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc. | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Torchlight Strategies | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Winston Group | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
“Usable” counts the polls that produced a comparison — one per firm per field period, excluding polls in races whose polling disagrees about who is running, polls against a placeholder opponent, and polls with no other firm in the field within 45 days. A firm with polls but no usable ones gets no estimate at all, which is a different thing from an estimate of zero.