FL-8
- Jennifer Jenkins (Dem)
- Mike Haridopolos (Rep · incumbent)
Favors Rep
Republicans95%
Republicans are favored, winning 94,623 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans95%
Republicans are favored, winning 94,600 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+13.7
5th–95th interval
R+27.7 to D+0.3
Estimated margin
R+13.6
5th–95th interval
R+27.6 to D+0.3
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+8.3
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling dem sponsor | Jul 17–Jul 18, 2026 | 633 rv | Mike Haridopolos 44.0% Jennifer Jenkins 35.0% | R+9.0 | R+7.5 R+1.5 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.