AZ-8
- Bernadette Greene-Placentia (Dem)
- Abraham Hamadeh (Rep · incumbent)
Tossup
Republicans61%
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 60,580 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Tossup
Republicans61%
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 60,580 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+2.3
5th–95th interval
R+16.2 to D+11.7
Estimated margin
R+2.3
5th–95th interval
R+16.2 to D+11.7
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.