AZ-8
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 63 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT
Rating
Tossup
Win probability
R 63%
Estimated margin
R+3.6
5th–95th interval
R+20.8 to D+12.9
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.