CO-5
- Jessica Killin (Dem)
- Jeff Crank (Rep · incumbent)
Tossup
Republicans64%
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 63,856 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Tossup
Republicans64%
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 63,838 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+3.1
5th–95th interval
R+17.0 to D+11.0
Estimated margin
R+3.0
5th–95th interval
R+17.0 to D+11.0
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+1.8
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Crank (R) vs Jessica Killin (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Global Strategy Group dem sponsor | Jul 16–Jul 21, 2026 | 450 lv | Jeff Crank 45.0% Jessica Killin 44.0% | R+1.0 | — | Source |
| Jeff Crank (R) vs Jessica Killin (D) vs Matt Cavanaugh (I) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Global Strategy Group dem sponsor | Oct 30–Nov 3, 2025 | 450 lv | Jeff Crank 43.0% Jessica Killin 40.0% Ind 5.0% | R+3.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.